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Private group Australian Crop Forecasters, headed by former AWB manager Ron Storey, has predicted a total crop of 26 to 27 million tonnes, given sufficient planting rain and average yields.
A crop of that magnitude could eclipse the existing record of 26.1 million tonnes, set in 2003-2004.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has also delivered a sizeable, though not-quite record-breaking prediction, forecasting a total yield of 25.953 million tonnes.
Given the encouraging start to this year’s season, analysts believe farmers will be eager to make the most of high wheat futures prices, in an effort to restore drought-crippled cash flow.
“The kind of factors that we looked at in predicting that big crop were the prices that we’re seeing at the moment for wheat crops, which are at record levels both on the international scale as well as domestically,” said ABARE commodity analyst Leanne Lawrence.
“We’ve had some positive rainfall in the northern part of our grains belt particularly in Queensland and northern NSW, so if we actually get a good break in southern NSW, in to South Australia and across into Western Australia, we’re likely to see a big area go in, because it’s been a couple of tough years in a row for our grain producers.
“So if they get the good break, given the high returns, and the crop’s an annual crop, it will give them some good cash flow if they can actually get a crop in, get it off this year and get in some of these high prices,” Ms Lawrence said.
“We’re hopeful for a return to normal seasonal conditions in our major grain growing regions.
“What we look at is the Bureau of Meteorology and their latest three month outlook and what they’re saying is, across the majority of the grain belt is there is roughly a 50-50 chance of receiving average rainfall over the next three months so hopefully that will transpire into a good season break for our grain producers as well as follow-up rain throughout the year, which is quite critical.”
A crop of that magnitude could eclipse the existing record of 26.1 million tonnes, set in 2003-2004.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has also delivered a sizeable, though not-quite record-breaking prediction, forecasting a total yield of 25.953 million tonnes.
Given the encouraging start to this year’s season, analysts believe farmers will be eager to make the most of high wheat futures prices, in an effort to restore drought-crippled cash flow.
“The kind of factors that we looked at in predicting that big crop were the prices that we’re seeing at the moment for wheat crops, which are at record levels both on the international scale as well as domestically,” said ABARE commodity analyst Leanne Lawrence.
“We’ve had some positive rainfall in the northern part of our grains belt particularly in Queensland and northern NSW, so if we actually get a good break in southern NSW, in to South Australia and across into Western Australia, we’re likely to see a big area go in, because it’s been a couple of tough years in a row for our grain producers.
“So if they get the good break, given the high returns, and the crop’s an annual crop, it will give them some good cash flow if they can actually get a crop in, get it off this year and get in some of these high prices,” Ms Lawrence said.
“We’re hopeful for a return to normal seasonal conditions in our major grain growing regions.
“What we look at is the Bureau of Meteorology and their latest three month outlook and what they’re saying is, across the majority of the grain belt is there is roughly a 50-50 chance of receiving average rainfall over the next three months so hopefully that will transpire into a good season break for our grain producers as well as follow-up rain throughout the year, which is quite critical.”
